Vegetable, Melon Sector to Reach $26 Billion by 2020

WASHINGTONUSDAs Economic Research Service (ERS) released its Vegetables and Melons Outlook" that estimates the current farm value of vegetables and melons at $21.8 billion and projects it to grow by an average 1.7 percent annually over the next decade, reaching an estimated $25.8 billion in 2020. About 60 percent of the 2020 value is from fresh-market vegetables, excluding potatoes. Per capita consumption of vegetables and melons in 2020 is forecast to be 424 pounds, about the same as in 2010.

The agency projects the total U.S. crop of tomatoes for processing will likely reach 12.9 million tons in 2010. With a smaller processing tomato crop in both the world (down 13 percent) and Italy (down 15 percent) this year and lower U.S. wholesale prices, U.S. tomato paste exports are likely to increase as the season progresses.

Despite a large crop and increased stocks of several dry bean classes, prices are not expected to decline over the coming marketing year but are more likely to rise. Current dry bean returns are not competitive with most alternative crops, suggesting that in the absence of major changes to these

commodity price relationships this winter, U.S. dry bean area could decline more than a tenth in 2011.

Dry pea and lentil exports are likely to be strong over the coming months thanks to good supplies, a weak dollar and favorable world demand. However, with prospective returns for both lentils and dry peas projected to fall short of those for spring wheat, area planted to dry peas and lentils is expected to decline in 2011.

During the 4Q10, the shipping-point price for U.S. cantaloupe will average around 28 cents per poundmore than 50 percent above a year earlier. The U.S. market is transitioning to imported melons, largely from Central America, with the early winter outlook tilted toward weather-reduced supplies and higher prices than a year earlier.

With lower area and yields pulling fall production down 8 percent in 2010, the farm price for all potatoes during November averaged 6 percent higher than a year earlier at $7.65 per cwt. As a result of higher prices and an improving foodservice sector, potato growers are expected to increase acreage slightly in 2011.

Given some weather-related uncertainty over 2010 sweet potato production, a modest increase is anticipated in the 2010/11 season-average price from the strong $20.90 per cwt of 2009/10. With favorable prices and good processing, foodservice and export demand, growers are expected to plant slightly more area in 2011 than the 113,800 acres of a year earlier.

Adverse weather conditions in Pennsylvania reduced mushroom yields this fall. In the Philadelphia wholesale market, white button prices (medium size, 10-pound carton) on Dec. 1 were up 8 percent from a year earlier.

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